An Improved Chemical and Biological Downwind Hazard Prediction Systemby Colonel Joseph P. Phillip, USA Lieutenant Colonel Ben E. Moberley, USA Captain David L. De Vries, USA
Defense Nuclear Agency
17 July 1991
ABSTRACT It is essential that combat commanders have clear, timely, and definitive information and advice on the potential effects of chemical and biological (CB) weapons for decisions affecting troop safety and operational mobility. However, current prediction methods generate broad outlines of total expected areas of potential hazards. Even where automated and enhanced, because of necessary allowances for statistical variability of weather, these methods show hazard areas encompassing even larger portions of terrain without any better appreciation for the significance of the true hazard. Capitalizing on expertise in nuclear effects modeling, the Defense Nuclear Agency in January 1991 rapidly conducted work to provide an improved CB downwind hazard prediction system for Operation Desert Storm. The project was undertaken in direct response to concerns over the CB warfare threat in the Persian Gulf conflict. The system, called ANBACIS II for beneficial association with the Army's Automated Nuclear, Biological And Chemical Information System, provides for greater definition of potential hazard areas by drawing map overlay contours of different dosage intensity according to specific, detailed weapons intelligence information. ANBACIS II packages detailed weapons effects models together with real-time weather input and digital raster maps; all within a user friendly, interactive graphical interface. The result is dramatic visualization capability coupled with substantial computer power. The benefit to the combat commander is a more discrete prediction of the probable extent of serious contamination from cloud travel, greatly enhancing the understanding of impact on mission accomplishment. (See Output Comparison, Figure 1). The concept for the ANBACIS II system was developed and coordinated in November and December, 1990. Work effectively started the first of January, 1991and was completed within 45 days. The system became fully operational on 30 January and served the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) throughout Desert Storm. As finally configured, strike and exercise reports from field commands were telephoned into the Defense Nuclear Agency's Operations Canter. There, system operators used the interactive ANBACIS II system to access a pre-computed database of over 11,000 contour "footprints" for various weapons, agents, and weather conditions. The system and its operators were challenged by over 600 test exercise and strike message requests called into the Continental United States (CONUS) operations canter from U.S. forces elements within the Kuwaiti Theater of Operations. Responses were provided within 10 minutes by facsimile transmission over secure telephone lines. The replies, in the form of map contour overlays of different chemical and biological dosage limits of significance, allowed for scenario analysis and better advice to commanders. ANBACIS II shows great promise as a modular improvement to automated NBC warning and reporting systems. Additionally, the graphical interface proves that common handling and display of various effects base models is possible, not only in warfare but also in evaporation models for accidents and spills. Rapid development and improvement in weather and terrain accommodation are also possible, to include three dimensional resolution. The software is readily adaptable to common user type equipment and small, notebook-size commercial personal computer platforms. In synergy with detection capability, ANBACIS II is a significant advance in contamination avoidance capability, thereby promoting success on the contaminated battlefield.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose
The Automated Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Information System II (ANBACIS II) was developed to provide a more realistic, real-time chemical and biological (CB) downwind hazard prediction capability for United States and coalition forces to evaluate potential hazards to forces and availability of terrain for maneuver. The effort focused on improving the existing Allied Technical Publication No. 45 (ATP-45) system which provides a very large, safe-sided hazard area estimate containing more than 99% of chemical and/or biological agents. The final user products are prediction contour plots that are of tactical significance. (See Output Comparison, figure 1)
1.2 Current Service Capabilities
Throughout the services, there is limited capability for CB hazard prediction. The doctrinal standard, Vol II, ATF-45, allows for changing wind directions, but this only takes a larger, more conservative fan. It also is not an automated process. The Air force continues to rely on existing manual method of ATP-45.
The Army ANBACIS I system automates AT7-45 on DOD personal computers. It provides significantly faster computations, but still gives a large fan and has limited biological capability. The Chemical Research, Development and Engineering Center (CRDEC) developed the basic defensive research weapons models (called NUSSE-4 and PARACOMPT) which have been incorporated into ANBACIS II.
The U.S. Marines acquired a handheld ZENBC system recently developed by the United Kingdom. It also automates ATT-45 and is ruggedized and portable but provides less capability than ANBACIS I. It has no biological hazard prediction capability.
The U.S. Navy developed VLSTRACK for chemical hazard prediction. It has a similar capability as the basic weapons models incorporated into ANBACIS II but is able to use varying winds. It was not fully developed nor evaluated before Desert Storm. The Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) developed a biological "Plume" model which provides more intuitive, realistic looking plots using varying weather conditions. Plume is now incorporated into ANBACIS II.
2. BACKGROUND
2.1 Concept Initiation
During the buildup of Operation Desert Shield, there was great concern over the CB warfare threat in the Persian Gulf. In November 1990, the Director of DNA, Major General Gerald C. Watson, viewed a computer visualization demonstration of a three dimensional transport and diffusion model incorporating local wind and terrain data. Prom this, he conceived the idea of including such a model in the Army ANBACIS program which was already deployed to Army commands in Saudi Arabia. He than formed a team of chemical experts to review and survey existing models that could be used to develop an improved CB hazard prediction visualization product for CENTCOM commanders.
2.2 Model Evaluation
At the time, there were no operational models available which incorporated both weather and terrain data. Several research and development models were reviewed for feasibility and operational use. The team evaluated a model by the U.S. Army Atmospheric Sciences Laboratories (ASL) which incorporated weather and terrain inputs but was not sufficiently developed for immediate operational use. The United States Army Nuclear and Chemical Agency (USANCA) funded Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) model - HOTMAC/RAPTAD - was also reviewed but it was not able to handle bursting munition data. Therefore, the team initially settled on using NUSSE-4/PARACOMPT for chemical prediction and GAPCAP/VAMTECAP for biological. These models, developed by CRDEC for single and multiple munitions scenarios respectively, contain essential munitions data but only basic single vector winds for weather input.
2.3 Justification for DNA Lead
DNA's past work on nuclear, dust and smoke transport modeling provided the necessary technical and experience base to develop and integrate such an ambitious project. DNA also supported the Army's development of the ANBACIS I program which automated the safe-sided prediction of ATP-45. Because of its mission, DNA also had a core of chemical officers already assigned who became the nucleus of the modeling and validation.
2.4 Coordination
Coordination in initiating the project and to keep it on track was constant and very thorough. Technical experts from within DNA initially visited the U.S. Army Chemical School, Ft McClellan. AL and ASL at White Sands Missile Range, NM. As the initial concept came to life, several discussions pertaining to modeling, and its various factors, were discussed with ASL, LANL and CRDEC. The operational concept was coordinated with Offices of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), Joint Staff, Department of the Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations (DCSOPS), the Defense and Central Intelligence Agencies, CRDEC, the U.S. Army Chemical School, and CENTCOM.
2.5 Schedule
From the onset and throughout the active project, a schedule was developed and continually modified according to the circumstances. As work transpired, the actual accomplishments were:
Item / Date
Initiated Project / 1 November 1990
Concept Briefings / November 1990 - January 1991
Support Contract Awarded / 24 December 1990
Concept Message (J-3 CENTCOM) / 28 December 1990
System Functional / 11 January 1991
Install Equipment in Theater / 22 - 30 January 1991
System Operational / 30 January 1991
24 Hour Operations Stopped / 4 March 1991
Operations Terminated / 11 March 1991
3. ACTIONS PRECEDING CONFLICT (Desert Shield)
3.1 Project Team
As the various input models were being gathered and assimilated, Applied Computing Systems, Inc. was contracted to Integrate the models into an operational system and provide for an enhanced visual output. Selected personnel from other government and contractor organizations (Air force Systems Command, LANL, CRDEC, SAIC, MITRE, JAYCOR) were also brought in to further develop, evaluate, and operate the working models. A representative from Air Force Global Weather Center (AFGWC) also joined the project and assisted in establishing on-line weather support and an operational weather analysis cell. He installed the Automated Weather Network (AWN) in the DNA Operations Center which provided the hourly surface weather observations used to continually update weather forecasts for the Kuwaiti Theater of Operations. The AFGWC also provided three military weather forecasters which gave a round- the-clock weather analysis capability.
3.2 Model Selection
The CRDEC-developed NUSSE-4 and PARACOMPT models were selected for chemical predictions and the GAPCAP and VAMTECAP models were initially used for biological predictions. A limitation of these models was that they only accepted single vector winds in their calculations. This was not considered a serious deficiency for the chemical predictions since the significant level of contamination from hazardous clouds usually lasted only 1 to 3 hours and traveled only a relatively few tens of kilometers downwind. The large numbers of fielded chemical detectors able to alarm on actual contamination offset micro-climate capabilities. Biological agents, however, could drift downwind 8 to 12 hours and possibly extend several hundred kilometers while still remaining virulent. For this reason, the NSWC biological Plume model, which accounted for varying meteorological conditions (wind speed, direction, and stability category) and varying biological decay rates (in the night/day transition), was finally selected to be the primary biological prediction model.
The NUSSE-4 and Plume models were written in a combination of FORTRAN and C programming language, for use in a Unix operating environment. These models did not have user friendly input interfaces nor operating routines. Consequently, operators made numerous errors and spent much time entering data and calculating responses to message reports because lengthy path and file names were required. To correct this, ACS developed a user friendly, menu driven interface so anyone with minimal training could perform special chemical or biological calculations. This interface proved invaluable and allowed for continued use of these models by non-modeling or computer experts.
3.3 Operation and Methodology
The Sun SPARC 2 workstation was the primary operational platform used to do the hazard predictions. As fast as this computer is, it still often took 15- 20 minutes to perform some calculations and was not sufficient to meet the operational turn around time goal of 10 minutes (from receipt of a strike report from the field to faxing back a contour prediction plot). This prompted a decision to create a database of pre-computed chemical footprints based on suspected Iraqi munitions and agents and various preselected meteorological conditions. The ANBACIS II system has the capability to interact directly with supporting technical models for special computations, or to access a precomputed chemical database in normal use. (See the System Design, Figure 2) To help create the database rapidly, modelers and operators ran the various prediction problems remotely on the DNA Cray computer located at LANL. In the end, more than 11,000 pre-computed footprints were established for the database. At one tine, four Cray computers were linked together to perform spray system calculations quickly. While the Crays were necessary, the reason was solely to accomplish a large volume of calculations in a short time. With a less stressful schedule, lesser platforms can adequately perform all necessary calculations. On the workstations, biological footprints remain processed on subordinate windows using interactive screens which drive the model and allow input of forecast and changes in weather data. The Plume model within ANBACIS II runs quickly (only about 5 more minutes for a 15 minute turn around time). Biological requests can be updated with weather changes until actual weather reports signify s completed pattern. (See Examples of Input Screen and Overlay Output, Figure 3)
3.4 Product for the Field
The team also decided that rather than deploy computer equipment to CENTCOM for a centralized in-theater hazard prediction focal point, it would be less burdensome and more efficient to have all the calculations and analyses performed in the United States. To get the necessary information back and forth quickly (strike reports from CENTCOM units and hazard prediction plots returned to CENTCOM), the Director, DNA offered to provide and install classified facsimile machines and STU-III secure telephones. In all, 21 sets of equipment were deployed according to a CENTCOM distribution plan. There were several factors influencing the numbers of systems - overall cost and availability as well as the number of reasonable command nodes requiring assistance, yet able to collate and manage the NBC Warning and Reporting System (NBCWRS).
4. ACTIONS DURING CONFLICT (Desert Storm: Air & Ground Campaign)
4.1 Deployment and System Operation
Shortly after the air war of Desert Storm began, DNA sent four officers to Saudi Arabia with secure facsimile machines and STU-III telephones. The equipment was installed at 15 locations as directed by CENTCOM. By 30 January, all the equipment was in place, many pre-computed footprints were already developed, and the operating crews were trained. The DNA Operations Center became fully operational on a 24 hour basis. Three shifts, each with an operations cell (military personnel from within DNA), a modeling cell, and a weather cell conducted round-the-clock operations.
The modeling cell consisted of computer and chemical experts from LANL, SAIC, MITRE, and JAYCOR. This cell, via a highspeed computer network link to the DNA Cray computer at LANL, created the footprint database and ran special calculations as requested by CENTCOM units. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also used the ANBACIS II products for their own analysis. Once completed, all footprints and other calculation results were stored on a local computer at DNA. This information was then available for all operators to use as an immediate response to a chemical or biological strike or test exercise report.
The weather cell consisted of trained military weather analysts and forecasters from the U.S. Air Force Air Weather Service. Normally, one non- commissioned officer was assigned to a particular shift. He was responsible for validating the significant weather entries on the NBC-2 reports or predicting weather forecasts for special exercise missions.
4.2 Scheme of Operations
The general scheme of operations was:
1) Units would telephone in NBC-2 reports to the Operations Center. The NBC-2 report would be completed IAW standard doctrine; each report would have a unique strike serial number and the local weather data.
2) Concurrent with a weather check, one of the computer operators would input the NBC-2 report data into the Sun workstation and call up the correct pre-computed footprint. He would than scale it to the user requested map scale and print it.
3) The printed hazard prediction, containing remarks blocks with the original NBC-2 report and essential text data supporting the contour plots, was reviewed for accuracy by the Chemical and Shift Officer-in- Charge.
4) Once approved, the Communications Officer dispatched the prediction plot to the originating unit via secure facsimile.
All of this was accomplished within 10 minutes. To allow for receipt of multiple strike reports from different units at the same time, six computer operators were always available to conduct simultaneous, multi-tasking calculations from any of the six networked workstations if necessary.
4.3 System Usage
When Desert Storm first began, a series of bunker problems were calculated to estimate the effects of coalition bombing of suspected CB production and storage facilities in Iraq. Weapons storage quantities were based on estimates provided by personnel from the United States Army Armament Munitions and Chemical Command (AMCCOM) . The resultant downwind hazard prediction plots were provided to Joint and Service staffs and to the National Military Command Center (NMCC) to assist in overall battle damage assessment. Special calculations were conducted at the request of several agencies. These included assessing potential hazards resulting from intercepts of Scud missiles and the extent of effects of possible chemical or biological attacks on population centers.
An important part of the ANBACIS II system was the integration of Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) ARC Digitized Raster Graphics (ADRG) maps on compact disc read-only-memory (CD-ROM) optical disks. DMA provided CD-ROM maps in scales of 1:250,000, 1:500, 000, 1:1,000,000, and 1:2,000, 000 for each area of interest in a most timely manner. Since CD-ROM maps were not available in 1:50,000 scale, DMA provided paper maps for those areas surrounding the major CENTCOM air bases of interests. These were then digitally scanned at DNA, logically linked together and added to the map database on the system server. All hazard prediction plots could then be printed (in black and white or in color) with a map background if requested. Usually, the map background was not provided because of the additional time in printing the complete map and plot, and in transmitting that detail of information over a 2400 bits per second, analog voice circuit with the facsimile. Map backgrounds were routinely provided in CONUS when the plots were to be presented during command and staff briefings. Overlay plots were routinely sent for CENTCOM for posting on operations maps.
4.4 Coordination and Briefings
Continuous coordination was made with the Army Chemical School, CRDEC, Surgeon General's Office (for agent toxicological data), and numerous intelligence agencies to refine the weapons and chemical/biological agent database to ensure that the footprints produced would be according to the best, most accurate data available. At one point, when new and additional weapons and fuzing information was received, an entirely new footprint database was generated and each entry was individually validated.
Throughout the operation, numerous briefings and demonstrations were given to high level officials to acquaint them with this new, significant contribution to the war effort and need for continued work.
While there were no actual chemical or biological strikes during the war, continuous exercise strikes were generated to ensure that CENTCOM units and DNA operations personnel remained proficient. In all, more than 600 plots were calculated and dispatched to units in Saudi Arabia. The Army Division and Corps NBC staffs requested numerous specific plots so they could perform vulnerability analysis to visually show commanders the results of potential enemy CB attacks. These plots were used in daily briefings as Commanders planned their defensive and offensive operations. A tabular summary is included in figure 4.
5. ACTIONS AFTER CONFLICT
Since the cessation of conflict, the majority of the effort has centered on cleaning up the software code, writing the documentation, and developing a transition plan to ensure that this landmark contribution is properly carried forth for continued development by the Services.
Several briefings and demonstrations have also been conducted to create a greater understanding and awareness of the enhance and improved hazard prediction capabilities that are possible now. As a result of demonstrating the system at the various conferences, there has been a great demand for a DOS version of a database of pre-computed footprints. This capability has been developed using a notebook size PC. An effort is underway to demonstrate a full system capability on either a common user or other commercial platforms. ANBACIS II fulfilled an immediate requirement for an improved prediction capability, better training tools, improved advice to commanders and system adaptability to smaller computers. Figure 5 details future system enhancements and goals.
6. LESSONS LEARNED
Improved prediction capabilities are available now with existing technology; more is needed to make the system faster, more accurate, and more user friendly.
As models are enhanced to allow for changing meteorological conditions, timely and accurate weather information becomes critical. Automatic infusion of weather data, such as from the Army's Integrated Meteorological System (IMETS), is needed to drive the models. Combinations of weather sensors and reporting stations proliferated throughout the area of operation, or by satellite with lookdown capability for micro-meteorological conditions, will provide real-time data feed for systems such as ANBACIS II.
Sufficient intelligence data must be made more available. A common, standardized database of threat weapons, agents, fill weights and other weapon parameters, as well as weather parametric data, is required to establish footprints for various regional threat scenarios.
Commercial communications systems proved adequate and practical for this particular situation for training and wargaming. Large scale use of CB would have overloaded the ability to report or respond immediately. There is an urgent need either to construct data distribution systems that span both strategic and tactical communications networks and is capable of transmitting large amounts of data (images, files or packets), or to downsize and distribute a direct ANBACIS II system capability within units.
There has been no centralized DoD level focus on model development or NBC battlefield automation techniques. Each service has established their own separate methods of performing hazard calculations and transmitting NBC reports. In a Joint Task Force Operation, such as Operation Desert Storm and as will always be in future conflicts, all should be operating from a standardized system. A DoD level agency should be designated to ensure a standardized capability is established.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
The ANBACIS II effort proved the utility of a common, user friendly Interface for many purposes. Development should continue with system transition as a joint Service project. Specifically, development should:
1. provide for a DOD level focus for NBC battlefield automation.
2. establish a DoD standardized NBC hazard prediction model interface incorporating automated real-time weather and digital terrain data on common user equipment.
3. add a nuclear fallout and smoke assessment system and accident/incident/environmental modules to make improved downwind hazard prediction systems for all nuclear, biological, chemical, and other hazardous materials situations. [HANDWRITTEN: FAS HOTMAC/RAPTAD]
4. incorporate ANBACIS II into the U.S. ANBACIS and NATO ATP-45 as an improvement to the current NBC-3 report.
5. downsize and proliferate ANBACIS II software to operate on common user platforms.
6. assign development and operations centers to build and use general and theater specific databases of footprints.
7. create unclassified databases for use in classroom training and field exercise situations.
8. maintain a network for exchange of data and to conduct regular test exercises, among all elements.